Friday, March 2, 2001 2:30 p.m.
Social Science Plaza B-1222
Michael O'Fallon
Immediate Past President, American Statistical Association
&
Professor of Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic
Attributable Risk Estimation: A Tale of Mathematical/Statistical Modeling
Attributable risk, a simple but underused concept, is defined as the percent of cases of a disease which can be "attributed" to a risk factor. The deceptive simplicity of the concept provides a fertile ground for a discussion of its mathematical and statistical underpinnings. Not surprisingly, in the complex human world of multiple diseases with multiple interrelated causes, implementation of the concept proves to be not at all simple. This presentation discusses the development of the concept from its simple phase to a complex generalized model of attributable risk which, by permitting the simultaneous consideration of multiple causation and confounding factors, may come acceptably close to the "Real World". A software package will be discussed briefly which employs computer intensive resampling methods (Bootstrap, Jackknife) to estimate the distribution of the generalized estimate. The utility of the concept will be illustrated using data from a large study designed to explicate risk factors for ischemic stroke. This presentation will combine issues of medicine, public health, computer science, mathematics and statistics in a meaningful and easily understood fashion.
For further information
contact the UCI Center for Statistical Consulting [949] 824-5366 or stats@uci.edu